January 2026 has opened with a notably high level of air tightness testing lodgement activity, marking the strongest January performance recorded to date. While a single month cannot define the year ahead, the strength of this start provides a useful early indicator of confidence and engagement across the sector as the new year begins.
Historically, January tends to reflect the underlying health of the market rather than dictate its direction. Activity levels often stabilise after the Christmas shutdown and provide an early sense of capacity, workload readiness, and confidence among tester. In that context, the scale of activity seen at the beginning of 2026 suggests the industry has entered the year on a solid footing.
This internal picture aligns with the broader economic and construction outlook presented in the Economic Report December 2025, which highlights a gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions moving into 2026. While overall growth remains modest, the report points to easing inflation, expectations of further interest rate reductions, and improving household confidence as factors likely to support increased repair, maintenance, and construction-related activity as the year progresses. It also notes that household balance sheets remain relatively strong, positioning consumers to increase spending once confidence improves, particularly in property-related investment and upgrades.
Further support for a cautiously optimistic outlook comes from the Glenigan-Construction-Industry-Forecast-2026-2027-November2025, which forecasts a return to growth across much of the UK construction sector during 2026. While acknowledging the challenges faced in 2025, particularly delays linked to regulatory processes and post-election policy reviews, the forecast anticipates strengthening activity driven by renewed private sector investment, rising public sector capital programmes, and improving business confidence as borrowing costs ease.
Importantly, the Glenigan forecast does not suggest uniform growth across all areas with a gradual improvement in private housing and commercial activity and a a recovery shaped by infrastructure investment, public sector construction. This measured recovery narrative mirrors what is reflected in January’s lodgement performance: strong engagement without suggesting an immediate surge or unsustainable spike.
Taken together, January’s record level of lodgements and the outlook set out in these independent reports point to an industry entering 2026 with renewed momentum. While it remains too early to draw firm conclusions about the year as a whole, the combination of a strong operational start and improving external conditions provides a positive platform from which activity can build.
As further data becomes available over the coming months, January will serve as a valuable reference point and as an indication that the sector is beginning the year with confidence, capacity, and cautious optimism for what lies ahead.
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